Why Your Google Ads 'Work' in March and Die in June: The Contractor Seasonality System Nobody Talks About

Your Google Ads "stopped working" around Memorial Day. They'll "magically work again" in September. This isn't Google's fault—it's the contractor calendar. And most agencies don't know how to manage it.

Every year, the same pattern plays out across thousands of contractor Google Ads accounts: strong performance in spring, mysterious decline in summer, panic in July, and "recovery" in fall.

Contractors blame the algorithm. Agencies blame "market conditions." Everyone adjusts budgets reactively instead of strategically.

The truth? Seasonality in home services is predictable. And the contractors who plan for it—instead of reacting to it—capture market share while their competition panics.

This article breaks down the contractor demand curve, explains why your CPL spikes when it does, and gives you a month-by-month system to stop the seasonal rollercoaster.

The Contractor Demand Curve (What Nobody Explains)

Homeowner behavior follows a predictable annual cycle. Understanding this cycle is the difference between strategic marketing and expensive guesswork.

The Four Phases of Contractor Demand:

Phase 1: Research Season (January – March)

Homeowners are emerging from the holidays with tax refunds and project ideas. They're browsing Pinterest, watching HGTV, and googling "kitchen remodel ideas" and "bathroom renovation cost."

Search volume increases, but intent is low. They're planning, not buying.

Phase 2: Commitment Season (April – June)

This is prime time. Homeowners who researched in Q1 are now ready to commit. Weather improves, making outdoor access easier for construction. School years are ending, making summer project timelines attractive.

High-intent keywords like "contractor near me" and "remodeling company [city]" spike.

Phase 3: Price Shopping Season (July – August)

Vacations pull homeowners away from major decisions. Those still searching are often late-cycle price shoppers—they've already gotten estimates and are looking for a better deal.

Competition increases as contractors panic about slowing leads and increase spend. CPCs spike while conversion rates drop.

Phase 4: Urgency Season (September – November)

"Before winter" psychology kicks in. Homeowners who delayed all summer suddenly feel time pressure.

• Roofing, HVAC, and exterior work see massive spikes
• Interior remodels get booked for holiday timelines ("finished before Thanksgiving")
• Close rates peak because urgency is real

Phase 5: Planning Season (December)

Holiday distractions reduce active searching. Serious buyers plan for January starts. Retargeting and nurture campaigns outperform new acquisition.

Why Your CPL Spikes in Summer (And What It Actually Means)

When contractors see cost per lead jump 30-50% in July, they assume Google Ads "stopped working." In reality, three predictable forces are at play:

1. Increased Competition from Seasonal Entrants

Contractors who paused ads in winter re-enter the market in spring and maintain spend through summer.

Local Services Ads costs have increased from an average of $50.46 in 2023 to over $60.50 in 2024—a 20% jump—partly due to more contractors competing for the same leads. More bidders = higher CPCs.

2. Lower Search Intent During Vacation Season

Families on vacation aren't booking kitchen remodels. Those who are searching often exhibit lower intent—browsing during downtime rather than actively hiring.

The 2025 benchmarks show home services conversion rates decreased for 10 out of 16 subcategories, with an average decrease of 14.96% YoY. Lower intent = lower conversion = higher effective CPL.

3. Price Shoppers Dominate Late-Cycle Searches

By July, the best buyers have already committed. What remains are homeowners who've collected 6+ bids and are looking for the cheapest option—or those who'll "wait until next year."

Industry research shows homeowners now request six or more competitive bids for a single job, where it used to be one or two. More comparison shopping = harder closes.

The Strategic Response:

• Don't maintain spring budgets through summer
• Reduce spend on broad terms
• Tighten to highest-intent keywords only
• Focus on leads that show urgency signals ("need done this month," "emergency," "ASAP")
• Use the savings to fund fall acceleration

The Contractor Seasonality System: Month-by-Month Playbook

Here's the framework that keeps lead flow steady while competitors ride the rollercoaster.

Q1: January – March (Build & Nurture)

Budget: 60-70% of peak season allocation

Strategy: Build remarketing audiences from research traffic. Capture emails with content offers.

Keyword Focus:

• Maintain presence on high-intent terms ("contractor near me")
• Add educational content keywords at lower bids to build audience
• Create dedicated landing pages for "2026 remodeling trends" or "kitchen remodel cost guide" to capture researchers

Messaging:

• "Book your spring project now—schedules filling fast."
• "Free design consultation—plan your 2026 remodel."
• "Beat the spring rush—lock in your contractor today."

Action Items:

• Build remarketing lists from website visitors
• Create content offers (guides, checklists) to capture emails
• Test ad creative for spring campaigns
• Audit landing pages before traffic ramps

Q2: April – June (Accelerate & Convert)

Budget: 100-120% of baseline (this is your peak investment period)

Strategy: Maximum presence on conversion keywords. Aggressive remarketing to Q1 audiences.

Keyword Focus:

• Bid aggressively on "contractor near me," "remodeling company [city]," "[service] estimate"
• Expand geographic targeting if capacity allows
• Add competitor keywords for market share capture

Messaging:

• "Summer schedule filling—book your consultation this week."
• "Start now, finish by July 4th."
• "Don't wait—spring slots limited."

Action Items:

• Increase budgets 30-50% from Q1 levels
• Launch remarketing campaigns to Q1 audiences
• Tighten follow-up speed (5-minute rule critical now)
• Track lead-to-close pipeline weekly

Q3: July – August (Maintain & Qualify)

Budget: 70-80% of peak allocation

Strategy: Reduce volume, increase qualification. Focus only on highest-intent traffic.

Keyword Focus:

• Pause broad match terms
• Focus on exact match high-intent
• Add emergency/urgent modifiers ("need contractor this week," "fast turnaround")
• Exclude price-shopping terms ("cheapest," "discount," "lowest price")

Messaging:

• "Summer availability—limited slots remaining."
• "Fast-track your project before fall."
• "Skip the fall rush—start now."

Action Items:

• Reduce budgets strategically (not reactively)
• Tighten keyword match types
• Increase landing page qualification elements
• Shift savings to Q4 war chest

Q4: September – November (Harvest & Urgency)

Budget: 110-150% of baseline (this is your second major push)

Strategy: Capitalize on "before winter" psychology. Urgency messaging. Close hard.

Keyword Focus:

• Ramp back to full keyword portfolio
• Add seasonal modifiers ("before winter," "fall special," "holiday deadline")
• For roofing/exterior: storm damage, gutter, weatherproofing terms surge

Messaging:

• "Finish before the holidays—book by October 15th."
• "Last chance for 2026 completion."
• "Winter is coming—protect your home now."
• "Schedule now, start after Thanksgiving."

Action Items:

• Increase budgets aggressively
• Launch urgency-based ad creative
• Extend follow-up sequences (buyers decide faster now)
• Prepare December content/retargeting

December (Retarget & Plan)

Budget: 50-60% of peak allocation

Strategy: Stay visible to serious planners. Heavy remarketing. Prepare Q1 campaigns.

Keyword Focus:

• Reduce new acquisition spend
• Maintain brand terms
• Focus budget on remarketing to year's visitors

Messaging:

• "Start the new year with your dream kitchen."
• "Book January consultation—skip the spring waitlist."
• "New year, new bathroom—schedule now."

Action Items:

• Review annual performance data
• Plan Q1 campaign structure
• Refresh landing pages
• Build 2027 promotion calendar

Annual Budget & Strategy Summary

The "My Ads Died" Diagnostic

Before you fire your agency or pause campaigns, run this diagnostic. The problem usually isn't what you think.

Check 1: Did Search Volume Drop?

Use Google Trends to compare search volume for your core terms month-over-month. If "kitchen remodel contractor" searches dropped 25% from May to July, that's market seasonality—not campaign failure.

Your ads are working; there's just less demand to capture.

Check 2: Did CPC Spike?

Review your average CPC trend. If CPCs jumped 30%+ while conversion rates held steady, you're facing increased competition.

Either increase budget to maintain share or narrow targeting to highest-intent terms only.

Check 3: Did Your Close Rate Drop?

This is the hidden killer. If you're getting the same lead volume but closing fewer jobs, the problem is sales, not marketing.

Summer leads often require more follow-up. Are you doing it?

Check 4: Did Tracking Break?

Conversion tracking breaks more often than you'd think—especially after website updates, plugin changes, or iOS privacy updates.

Verify that form submissions and calls are still being tracked correctly. No data = no optimization = declining performance.

Check 5: Did Your Response Time Slow?

Summer vacations affect contractors too. If your team's response time crept from 10 minutes to 2 hours, you're losing leads you already paid for.

The Roofing Exception: Storm-Season Strategy

Roofing contractors face a unique seasonality challenge: weather events create demand spikes that don't follow the calendar.

The standard seasonal playbook still applies, but roofers need an additional layer: storm-responsive budgeting.

The Storm Surge Protocol:

Pre-storm (48-72 hours before predicted weather):

• Increase budgets 50%
• Add storm-specific keywords ("roof damage repair," "emergency roofer," "storm damage inspection")
• Prepare ad copy mentioning insurance coordination

During/immediately after storm:

• Increase budgets 150-200%
• Pause all non-emergency keywords
• Focus entirely on damage-related terms
• Extend service hours for lead response

1-2 weeks post-storm:

• Maintain elevated budgets
• Shift messaging to "insurance claim assistance" and "free inspection"
• Competition will flood in—bid to maintain position

3+ weeks post-storm:

• Gradually return to normal seasonal budgets
• Late responders to storm damage are often price shoppers

FAQ

Why do my Google Ads leads suddenly drop every summer?

Homeowner search behavior follows predictable seasonal patterns. Summer brings vacations, outdoor activities, and delayed home improvement decisions. Search volume drops while competition often remains high, creating the "leads dried up" effect. This is normal—and manageable with proper budget timing.

Should I pause Google Ads during slow months?

Rarely. Pausing completely means losing momentum, Quality Score, and remarketing audiences you've built. Better approach: reduce budget 30-40%, tighten to highest-intent keywords only, and shift savings to fall acceleration. Stay visible to serious buyers while reducing waste on browsers.

When is the best time to increase Google Ads budget for contractors?

Two windows matter most: April-June (commitment season) and September-November (urgency season). These periods see highest buyer intent and best conversion rates. Increase budgets 30-50% above baseline during these windows and reduce during July-August and December.

How do I know if my Google Ads problem is seasonal or something else?

Compare year-over-year data for the same months. If July 2025 performance matches July 2024 patterns, it's seasonal. If performance is significantly worse than the same period last year, investigate tracking, competition changes, or operational issues (response time, close rate).

What's the biggest mistake contractors make with seasonal Google Ads?

Reacting instead of planning. Most contractors maintain flat budgets year-round, then panic-cut when summer slows and panic-spend when fall picks up. By then, competitors who planned ahead have captured the best leads. Build your annual budget calendar before January, not in response to monthly results.

The Bottom Line

Your Google Ads didn't "stop working." Homeowner behavior shifted—and your campaign didn't shift with it.

The contractors who win year-round understand that seasonality isn't a problem to solve—it's a pattern to exploit. They build audiences during research season, dominate during commitment season, conserve during shopping season, and harvest during urgency season.

Want a Seasonal Strategy Built for Your Trade and Market?

Request a Contractor Seasonality Audit from PLXLPEAK. We'll analyze your market's specific demand patterns and build a 12-month campaign calendar that captures demand when it peaks—and conserves budget when it doesn't.

Because "my ads stopped working" usually means "I wasn't ready for July."

Get Your Free Seasonality Audit

For more on improving lead quality, check out The $15k+ Job Filter. Managing a roofing business? See our Roofing Marketing Services.